Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The average count of daily killings each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative figures. But, security analysts have warned that murder figures could fail to indicate improved countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst remarked.