A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
