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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.